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It’s getting cold out there!! Winter Forecast 2013-14

25th Nov 2013

Winter is here, and with it come the long range winter forecasts. Depending on whom you ask, they can range from “pretty mild” to “Apocalyptic cold.” As people look to various indicators and forecasting tools, they are finding mixed signals about what to expect this winter. With such wildly varying opinions, it is best to be prepared for anything.

The reason for these varying opinions is that the indicators that forecasters look to are not giving a definitive answer one way or the other. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is neutral and the Siberian Snow has been completely mixed. The latter is the latest, trendiest indicator for the upcoming winter. Currently, the snow is about average in Siberia. Therefore it is anyone’s best guess what expect for this winter forecast.

What we can do is look to last year to get an idea of what to expect this winter. But even this is imperfect and doesn’t really point to a certain answer for what to expect this winter. If last year’s weather is the same as this year, those in the upper Midwest can expect a goodly amount of snow in late January and February. Last year, for example, Duluth wound up getting the 3rd most snow in its recorded history, but that was after a relatively mild December. If that trend holds, people can expect a mild December but a relatively ferocious January and February.

Because there’s no clear indicator for what to expect for this winter forecast, it is wise to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Therefore a person should have a kit ready in case they lose power, a space heater to help keep heating costs low, and plenty of de-icer for their driveway and walkway. Until we start getting into the heart of winter, we really won’t know what to expect.

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